Relative survival by stage at diagnosis 2011–2016, a snapshot in time
Data on survival by stage at diagnosis allows for better interpretation of cancer survival outcomes.
The national collection and reporting of cancer survival by stage at diagnosis forms an integral part of Cancer Australia’s Stage, Treatment and Recurrence (STaR) project. In 2018, Cancer Australia released the first national Australian data on stage at diagnosis for the top five high incidence cancer types and for 16 major childhood cancer types. Prior to this, the lack of national cancer staging data had been an identified gap in our understanding of cancer control in Australia.
This data release presents population-level national data on survival by stage at diagnosis for the top five high incidence cancers (female breast, colorectal, lung, and prostate cancer, and melanoma).
Cancer Australia, the state and territory population based cancer registries, the Australasian Association of Cancer Registries, and Australian Institute of Health and Welfare have collaborated to collect and combine data on incidence by stage at diagnosis data with mortality data from the National Death Index (NDI), for the top five high incidence cancers. The stage at diagnosis data have been generated by all state and territory cancer registries using common national business rules. Stage at diagnosis data collected using this methodology is referred to as Registry-Derived or RD-Stage, which is defined for invasive tumours only.
The following summary presents 1, 3 and 5-year relative and observed survival rates by stage at diagnosis for people diagnosed with one of the top five high incidence cancers. In this report, ‘survival’ refers to relative survival unless otherwise stated. A more detailed analysis of the data, including information about data sources, methods for collection, and guidance for interpretation, is available in the following NCCI measures:
How does survival vary by stage at diagnosis?
Relative survival generally remained high for people diagnosed with early stage cancers (stage 1 and 2) up to 5 years from diagnosis, except for lung cancers.
Survival for:
- Stage 1 cancers overall was at least 98% up to 5 years from diagnosis for colorectal, female breast, and prostate cancers, and melanoma.
- Stage 2 cancers overall was also initially high for colorectal cancers, female breast cancers, and melanoma at 1 year from diagnosis (ranging between 96% and 99%), but decreased over time up to 5 years from diagnosis (female breast, 95%; colorectal, 89%; melanoma; 74%). Survival for prostate cancers remained high (at least 98%) up to 5 years from diagnosis.
- Survival for lung cancers progressively decreased between 1 and 5 years from diagnosis for stage 1 (from 91% to 68%) and stage 2 cancers (from 70% to 32%).
Generally, people diagnosed with more advanced cancers (stage 3 and 4) had lower relative survival, which progressively decreased up to 5 years from diagnosis.
Survival for:
- Locally advanced (stage 3) overall cancers was initially high (ranging between 93% and 98%) at 1 year from diagnosis for colorectal and female breast cancers and melanomas, but decreased over time up to 5 years from diagnosis (female breast, 81%; colorectal, 71%; melanoma, 61%). For prostate cancers, survival remained high (100%) up to 5 years from diagnosis.
- Metastatic (stage 4) cancers overall was lower and progressively decreased between 1 and 5 years from diagnosis for prostate (from 71% to 36%), female breast (from 69% to 32%), and colorectal cancers (from 49% to 13%), and melanomas (from 55% to 26%).
- Survival for lung cancers, however, was comparatively lower initially and continued to decrease between 1 and 5 years from diagnosis for stage 3 cancers (from 58% to 17%) and stage 4 cancers (from 19% to 3%).
Incidence distribution and five-year relative survival by stage at diagnosis and cancer type, 2011
Note: Click on the image above to expand
How does survival by stage vary for different population groups?
Males and females
Relative survival by stage at diagnosis was lower for males compared to females for lung cancers and stage 2 and 3 melanomas.
Survival was lower for males compared to females up to 5 years from diagnosis for:
- Melanoma for:
- Stage 2 cancers, with survival for males decreasing from 94%, to 78% and 69% at 1, 3 and 5 years from diagnosis, respectively, compared to females at 99%, 89% and 81%, respectively;
- Locally advanced (stage 3), with survival for males decreasing from 69% to 56% at 3 and 5 years from diagnosis, respectively, compared to females at 74% to 70%, respectively.
- Lung cancers for:
- Stage 1 cancers, with survival for males decreasing from 89%, to 72% and 62% at 1, 3 and 5 years from diagnosis, respectively, compared to females at 93%, 81% and 75%, respectively;
- Locally advanced (stage 3) cancers, with survival for males decreasing from 54%, to 21% and 14% at 1, 3 and 5 years from diagnosis, respectively, compared to females at 64%, 32% and 22%, respectively;
- Metastatic (stage 4) cancers, at 1 year from diagnosis (18% compared to 22%).
Survival by stage at diagnosis was generally similar for males and females diagnosed with colorectal cancer.
Age
Relative survival by age group was generally similar across age groups for early stage cancers (stage 1 and 2), but tended to decrease with increasing age for advanced cancers (stage 3 and 4), where data were available.
Survival for:
- Early stage cancers (stage 1 and 2) was generally similar across age groups at 1, 3 or 5 years from diagnosis for colorectal, female breast, and prostate cancers;
- Stage 1 melanoma was also similar across age groups, but for stage 2 cancers survival generally decreased with increasing age;
- Advanced (stage 3 and 4) female breast and colorectal cancers generally decreased with increasing age;
- Lung cancers decreased with increasing age at all stages of diagnosis.
Remoteness areas
Where differences by remoteness areas were observed, survival by stage at diagnosis was higher for people living in Major Cities compared to Inner and Outer Regional areas or Remote and Very Remote areas.
Patterns in observed survival by stage at diagnosis by remoteness areas varied depending on the cancer type, stage at diagnosis, and number of years from diagnosis (where comparisons were possible). These patterns are explored in more detail in the links to the measures above for each of the top five high incidence cancer types.
Observed survival by stage was higher among people living in Major Cities compared to Inner and Outer Regional areas for:
- Early stage prostate cancers at 5 years from diagnosis (stage 1, 90% compared to 87%; stage 2, 87% compared to 85%);
- Stage 2 lung cancers at 3 years from diagnosis (43% compared to 31%);
- Metastatic (stage 4) lung cancers at 1 year (20% compared to 16%), 3 years (6% compared to 4%) and 5 years from diagnosis (3% compared to 2%).
Observed survival was also higher among people living in Major Cities compared to Remote and Very Remote areas (87% compared to 79%) for stage 2 prostate cancers at 5 years from diagnosis.
Although there were some differences, observed survival by stage at diagnosis was generally similar across remoteness areas for female breast and colorectal cancers, and melanoma.
Socioeconomic status areas
Where differences by socioeconomic status (SES) areas were observed, survival by stage at diagnosis was higher for people living the highest SES areas (SES5) compared to lower SES areas (SES1-3).
Patterns in observed survival by stage at diagnosis by socioeconomic status areas varied depending on the cancer type, stage at diagnosis, and number of years from diagnosis (where comparisons were possible). These patterns are explored in more detail in the links to the measures above for each of the top five high incidence cancer types.
Observed survival by stage at diagnosis was higher among people living in the highest SES areas (SES5) compared to lower SES areas (SES1-3) for:
- Prostate cancers for early stage (stage 1 and 2) and metastatic cancers (stage 4) up to 5 years from diagnosis.
- Lung cancers for metastatic cancers (stage 4) at 1 and 3 years from diagnosis.
- Melanoma for early stage (stage 1 and 2) and metastatic cancers (stage 4) up to 5 years from diagnosis.
Although there were some differences, survival by stage at diagnosis was generally similar across SES areas for female breast and colorectal cancers.
Analyses by Indigenous status were not possible due to small numbers
