Survival by stage at diagnosis indicates the probability of surviving for a specified time-period depending on the extent of the cancer (stage) at diagnosis. To assist in interpreting the data, some of the findings in the following sections are grouped into:
- Early stage cancers (stage 1 and 2) – restricted to the local area of origin of the cancer;
- Locally advanced cancers (stage 3) – cancers which have spread locally; and
- Metastatic cancers (stage 4) – cancers which have spread to distant sites.
The stage at diagnosis for lung cancer has been derived from data sources that are routinely accessible to all population-based cancer registries. These data are intended to be used for broad population-based analyses, and not to guide care of an individual.
The data showed that for lung cancers diagnosed in 2011, a lower proportion of cases were diagnosed as early stage cancers and a relatively high proportion were metastatic cancers when compared to corresponding proportions for other high incidence cancers[1]:
- Early stage cancers (stage 1 and 2) accounted for around one in five (18%) incident cases.
- Stage 1 cancers accounted for 12% of cases (1,183 cases);
- Stage 2 cancers accounted for 7% of cases (662 cases).
- Locally advanced cancers (stage 3) accounted for 11% of cases (1,131 cases).
- Metastatic cancers (stage 4) accounted for 42% of cases (4,273 cases).
- It was not possible to determine stage at diagnosis for 29% of cases (unknown stage; 2,885 cases).
More information on the distribution of stage at diagnosis can be accessed through the ‘Distribution of cancer stage’ measure.
Relative survival by RD-stage at diagnosis for lung cancers diagnosed in 2011
Relative survival for all lung cancers
Survival for people diagnosed with lung cancer in 2011 decreased with increasing time from diagnosis at:
- 42% at 1 year from diagnosis;
- 22% at 3 years from diagnosis;
- 17% at 5 years from diagnosis.
Although these data provide insights into survival for people diagnosed with lung cancer, it is also important to examine how survival differs by the extent to which a cancer has spread when first diagnosed.
Relative survival by RD-stage for all lung cancers
Examining relative survival by stage at diagnosis showed that survival progressively decreased with increasing time from diagnosis irrespective of stage at diagnosis. Cancers diagnosed at stage 2 to 4 had progressively lower survival in subsequent years compared to stage 1 cancers. Survival by stage at diagnosis is examined in more detail in the following sections.
Relative survival for early stage lung cancers (all persons)
For people diagnosed with early stage cancers (stage 1 and 2), survival decreased with increasing time from diagnosis.
Survival for people diagnosed with:
- Stage 1 cancers decreased from 91% to 76% between 1 and 3 years from diagnosis. Survival decreased further to 68% at 5 years from diagnosis;
- Stage 2 cancers decreased from 70% to 42% between 1 and 3 years from diagnosis. Survival decreased further to 32% at 5 years from diagnosis.
Relative survival for advanced lung cancers (all persons)
Survival was lower for people diagnosed with advanced cancers, particularly for cancers diagnosed as metastatic (stage 4). Survival decreased markedly with increasing time from diagnosis for stage 3 and 4 cancers.
Survival for people diagnosed with:
- Locally advanced cancers (stage 3) decreased from 58% to 25% between 1 and 3 years from diagnosis. Survival decreased further to 17% at 5 years from diagnosis;
- Metastatic cancers (stage 4) decreased from 19% to 5% between 1 and 3 years from diagnosis. Survival decreased further to 3% at 5 years from diagnosis.
Relative survival by stage at diagnosis, sex and age in 2011
Relative survival by sex for lung cancers
For lung cancers, relative survival by stage at diagnosis varied by sex. Generally, survival was lower for males than females with sex-specific survival differences generally increasing with increasing stage and/ or time from diagnosis.
For stage 1 cancers:
- Survival was generally lower for males compared to females at 1 year (89% compared to 93%) and 3 years from diagnosis (72% compared to 81%);
- Survival was lower for males compared to females at 5 years from diagnosis (62% compared to 75%).
For stage 2 cancers, survival was generally lower for males compared to females at 1 year (69% compared to 71%) and 5 years from diagnosis (31% compared to 34%).
For locally advanced cancers (stage 3), survival was lower for males compared to females at 1 year (54% compared to 64%), 3 years (21% compared to 32%) and 5 years from diagnosis (14% compared to 22%).
For metastatic cancers (stage 4):
- Survival was lower for males compared to females at 1 year from diagnosis (18% compared to 22%);
- Survival was similar for both males and females at 3 years (5% compared to 6%) and 5 years from diagnosis (3% compared to 4%).
Relative survival by age for lung cancers
The analysis in the following section examines overall patterns in relative survival across age groups where there were sufficient numbers for reporting purposes. The overall trend showed a lower survival with increasing age across all stages. Guidance for interpreting the data can be found in the ‘About the Data’ tab.
For stage 1 cancers:
- Survival varied across all age groups at 1 year (between 83% and 100%), 3 years (between 56% and 100%) and 5 years from diagnosis (between 54% and 95%).
- Survival generally decreased with increasing age for people:
- In age groups between 45 and 85 years and over from 97% to 84% at 1 year, and from 88% to 56% at 3 years from diagnosis;
- In age groups between 45 and 84 years from 85% to 54% at 5 years from diagnosis.
For stage 2 cancers:
- Survival varied across all age groups at 1 year (between 59% and 82%), 3 years (between 27% and 59%) and 5 years from diagnosis (between 23% and 57%).
- Survival generally decreased with increasing age for people:
- In age groups between 55 and 84 years from 81% to 59% at 1 year, and from 59% to 27% at 3 years from diagnosis;
- In age groups between 55 and 79 years from 57% to 23% at 5 years from diagnosis.
For locally advanced cancers (stage 3):
- Survival varied across all age groups at 1 year (between 28% and 74%), 3 years (between 21% and 37%) and 5 years from diagnosis (between 15% and 28%).
- Survival generally decreased with increasing age for people:
- In age groups between 55 and 85 years and over from 74% to 28% at 1 year from diagnosis;
- In age groups between 55 and 79 years from 37% to 21% at 3 years from diagnosis;
- In age groups between 55 and 74 years from 28% to 15% at 5 years from diagnosis.
For metastatic cancers (stage 4):
- Survival varied across all age groups at 1 year (between 6% and 35%), but much less so at 3 years (between 4% and 7%) and 5 years from diagnosis (between 3% and 4%);
- Survival generally decreased with increasing age for people in age groups between 40 and 85 years and over from 35% to 6% at 1 year from diagnosis;
- Survival was similar for people in age groups between 50 and 84 years, ranging between 4% and 7% at 3 years from diagnosis;
- Survival was not reported for most age groups at 5 years from diagnosis due to small numbers.
Similar patterns of survival were apparent in both sexes when examining sex-specific relative survival by stage at diagnosis across age groups for males and females.
Relative survival by age (<50 years and ≥50 years age groups) for lung cancer
This section examines patterns in relative survival for people aged 50 years and over compared to people aged less than 50 years. A higher proportion of cases were not able to be staged for people aged 50 years and over compared to those aged less than 50 years (29% compared to 21%).
- People aged 50 years and over when diagnosed:
- Accounted for 96% of cases eligible for staging;
- Had a low proportion of cases (18%) diagnosed at an early stage (stage 1, 12%; stage 2, 7%) whilst more advanced cancers combined accounted for around 53% of cases (stage 3, 11%; stage 4, 42%).
- People aged less than 50 years when diagnosed:
- Accounted for a low proportion of cases overall (4%);
- Had a low proportion of cases (20%) diagnosed at an early stage (stage 1, 15%; stage 2, 6%) whilst more advanced cancers combined accounted for 59% of cases (stage 3, 12%; stage 4, 47%).
For stage 1 cancers:
- People aged 50 years and over tended to have lower survival compared to those aged less than 50 years at 1 year from diagnosis (90% compared to 99%);
- People aged 50 years and over had lower survival compared to those aged less than 50 years:
- 75% compared to 94% at 3 years from diagnosis;
- 66% compared to 89% at 5 years from diagnosis.
For stage 2 cancers:
- People aged 50 years and over tended to have lower survival compared to those aged less than 50 years at 1 year from diagnosis (69% compared to 80%);
- Survival was not reported for people aged less than 50 years at 3 and 5 years from diagnosis due to small numbers.
For locally advanced cancers (stage 3):
- People aged 50 years and over tended to have lower survival compared to those aged less than 50 years:
- 58% compared to 64% at 1 year from diagnosis;
- 24% compared to 40% at 3 years from diagnosis.
- Survival was not reported for people aged less than 50 years at 5 years from diagnosis due to small numbers.
For metastatic cancers (stage 4):
- People aged 50 years and over had lower survival compared to those aged less than 50 years:
- 19% compared to 32% at 1 year from diagnosis;
- 5% compared to 13% at 3 years from diagnosis.
- Survival was not reported for people aged less than 50 years at 5 years from diagnosis.
Observed survival by stage at diagnosis and remoteness area in 2011
For examination of survival by remoteness area, the data apply to observed rather than relative survival due to an absence of life tables. More information can be found in the ‘About the Data’ tab.
For lung cancers, observed survival by stage at diagnosis was not reported for Remote and Very Remote areas at 3 and 5 years from diagnosis due to small numbers.
For stage 2 cancers, there was a difference in observed survival between people living in Inner and Outer Regional areas compared to those living in Major Cities at 3 years from diagnosis (31% compared to 43%).
For metastatic cancers (stage 4), there was a difference in observed survival between people living in Inner and Outer Regional areas compared to those living in Major Cities at 1 year (16% compared to 20%), 3 years (4% compared to 6%) and 5 years from diagnosis (2% compared to 3%).
Similar patterns were apparent in both sexes when examining 1, 3 and 5-year observed survival by stage at diagnosis among people living in different remoteness areas.
Observed survival by stage at diagnosis and socioeconomic status (SES) area in 2011
For examination of survival by SES areas, the data apply to observed rather than relative survival due to an absence of life tables. More information can be found in the ‘About the Data’ tab.
For lung cancers, observed survival by stage at diagnosis was generally similar across SES areas at 1, 3 and 5 years from diagnosis for people diagnosed with early stage or locally advanced cancers (stage 1 to 3).
For metastatic cancers (stage 4), there was a difference in observed survival between people living in the:
- Highest SES areas (SES5, 25%) compared to lower SES areas (SES1-3, 17%) at 1 year from diagnosis.
- Highest SES areas (SES5, 8%) compared to lower SES areas (SES1-2, between 4% and 5%) at 3 years from diagnosis.
Similar patterns were apparent in both sexes, when examining 1, 3 and 5-year observed survival by stage at diagnosis among people living in different SES areas.
Observed survival by stage at diagnosis and Indigenous status in 2011
Analyses of survival by stage were not undertaken by Indigenous status due to small numbers.