Survival by stage at diagnosis indicates the probability of surviving for a specified time-period depending on the extent of the cancer (stage) at diagnosis. To assist in interpreting the data, some of the findings in the following sections are grouped into:
- Early stage cancers (stage 1 and 2) – restricted to the local area of origin of the cancer;
- Locally advanced cancers (stage 3) – cancers which have spread locally; and
- Metastatic cancers (stage 4) – cancers which have spread to distant sites.
The stage at diagnosis for melanoma has been derived from data sources that are routinely accessible to all population-based cancer registries. These data are intended to be used for broad population-based analyses and not to guide care of an individual.
The data showed that for melanomas diagnosed in 2011, a high proportion of cases were diagnosed as early stage cancers:
- Early stage cancers (stage 1 and 2) accounted for almost all (92%) incident cases.
- Stage 1 cancers accounted for 78% of cases (8,730 cases);
- Stage 2 cancers accounted for 14% of cases (1,577 cases).
- Locally advanced cancers (stage 3) accounted for 3% of cases (331 cases).
- Metastatic cancers (stage 4) accounted for 2% of cases (233 cases).
- It was not possible to determine stage at diagnosis for 3% of cases (unknown stage; 328 cases).
More information on the distribution of stage at diagnosis can be accessed through the ‘Distribution of cancer stage’ measure.
Relative survival by RD-stage at diagnosis for melanomas diagnosed in 2011
Relative survival for all melanomas
Survival for people diagnosed with melanoma in 2011 was high at:
- 98% at 1 year from diagnosis;
- 95% at 3 years from diagnosis;
- 93% at 5 years from diagnosis.
Although these data provide insights into survival for people diagnosed with melanoma, it is also important to examine how survival differs by the extent to which a cancer has spread when first diagnosed.
Relative survival by RD-stage for all melanomas
Examining relative survival by stage at diagnosis showed that survival was higher for people diagnosed with stage 1 cancers and survival remained high up to 5 years from diagnosis. Cancers diagnosed at stage 2 to 4 had progressively lower survival in subsequent years compared to stage 1 cancers. Survival by stage at diagnosis is examined in more detail in the following sections.
Relative survival for early stage melanomas (all persons)
For people diagnosed with stage 1 cancers, survival remained high up to 5 years from diagnosis, but decreased with increasing time from diagnosis for stage 2 cancers.
Survival for people diagnosed with:
- Stage 1 cancers was at least 99% at 1, 3 and 5 years from diagnosis;
- Stage 2 cancers decreased from 96% to 82% between 1 and 3 years from diagnosis. Survival decreased further to 74% at 5 years from diagnosis.
Relative survival for advanced melanomas (all persons)
Survival was lower for people diagnosed with advanced cancers, particularly for cancers diagnosed as metastatic (stage 4). Survival also decreased with increasing time from diagnosis for stage 3 and 4 cancers.
Survival for people diagnosed with:
- Locally advanced cancers (stage 3) decreased from 93% to 71% between 1 and 3 years from diagnosis. Survival decreased further to 61% at 5 years from diagnosis;
- Metastatic cancers (stage 4) decreased from 55% to 32% between 1 and 3 years from diagnosis. Survival decreased further to 26% at 5 years from diagnosis.
Relative survival by stage at diagnosis, sex and age in 2011
Relative survival by sex for melanomas
For melanomas, survival by stage at diagnosis varied by sex for stage 2 and 3 cancers. Generally, survival was lower for males than females with sex-specific survival differences generally increasing with increasing time from diagnosis.
For stage 1 cancers, survival was high for both males and females (at least 98%) at 1, 3 and 5 years from diagnosis.
For stage 2 cancers, relative survival was lower for males compared to females at 1 year (94% compared to 99%), 3 years (78% compared to 89%) and 5 years from diagnosis (69% compared to 81%).
For locally advanced cancers (stage 3), survival was generally lower for males compared to females at 3 years (69% compared to 74%) and 5 years from diagnosis (56% compared to 70%).
For metastatic cancers (stage 4), survival was similar for both males and females at 1 year (55% compared to 57%) and 3 years (32% compared to 33%) from diagnosis. Comparisons between males and females were not possible at 5 years from diagnosis due to small numbers.
Relative survival by age for melanomas
The analysis in the following section examines overall patterns in relative survival across age groups where there were sufficient numbers for reporting purposes. The overall trend showed a lower survival with increasing age for cancers diagnosed at stage 2. Guidance for interpreting the data can be found in the ‘About the Data’ tab.
For stage 1 cancers, survival was similar for people in age groups between 0 and 84 years at 1 year (between 99% and 100%), 3 years (between 98% and 100%) and 5 years from diagnosis (between 95% and 100%).
For stage 2 cancers:
- Survival was similar across all age groups at 1 year (between 93% and 100%), but varied at 3 years (between 67% and 96%) and 5 years from diagnosis (between 52% and 90%);
- Survival generally decreased with increasing age for people in age groups between 65 and 85 years and over from 91% to 67% at 3 years, and from 83% to 52% at 5 years from diagnosis.
Survival varied by sex across age groups for stage 2 cancers. Generally, males diagnosed with stage 2 cancers had lower survival than females in the same age group at 3 and 5 years from diagnosis.
It was not possible to examine survival by age for advanced stage cancers (stage 3 and 4) in detail due to small numbers. These cancers combined accounted for 5% of melanoma cases in 2011 (564 cases).
For locally advanced cancers (stage 3):
- Survival was similar for people:
- In age groups between 50 and 74 years at 1 year from diagnosis (between 92% and 95%);
- In age groups between 50 and 64 years at 5 years from diagnosis (between 61% and 65%)
- Survival varied among people in age groups between 50 and 74 years, ranging between 61% and 72% at 3 years from diagnosis.
For metastatic cancers (stage 4) survival was not reported for most age groups due to small numbers.
Similar patterns of survival were apparent in both sexes when examining sex-specific survival by stage at diagnosis across age groups for males and females.
Relative survival by age (<50 years and ≥50 years age groups) for melanomas
This section examines patterns in relative survival for people aged 50 years and over compared to people aged less than 50 years. A similar proportion of cases (3% of cancers) were not able to be staged for both age groups.
- People aged 50 years and over when diagnosed:
- Accounted for 78% of cases eligible for staging;
- Were almost all (92%) diagnosed at an early stage (stage 1, 76%; stage 2, 16%) whilst more advanced cancers (stage 3 and 4) combined accounted for around 5% of cases (stage 3, 3%; stage 4, 2%).
- People aged less than 50 years when diagnosed:
- Accounted for a low proportion of cases overall (22%);
- Were almost all (92%) diagnosed at an early stage (stage 1, 86%; stage 2, 6%), whilst more advanced cancers (stage 3 and 4) combined accounted for around 5% of cases (stage 3, 3%; stage 4, 2%);
- Had a higher proportion of stage 1 cancers (86% compared to 76%) and a lower proportion of stage 2 cancers (6% compared to 16%) than those aged 50 years and over.
For stage 1 cancers, survival was similar for both age groups at 1, 3 and 5 years from diagnosis (at least 99%).
For stage 2 cancers:
- People aged 50 years and over had a similar survival to those aged less than 50 years at 1 year from diagnosis (99% compared to 96%);
- People aged 50 years and over had lower survival compared to those aged less than 50 years:
- 81% compared to 92% at 3 years from diagnosis;
- 72% compared to 85% at 5 years from diagnosis.
For locally advanced cancers (stage 3):
- People aged 50 years and over had lower survival compared those aged less than 50 years:
- 91% compared to 100% at 1 year from diagnosis;
- 65% compared to 90% at 3 years from diagnosis;
- 56% compared to 81% at 5 years from diagnosis.
For metastatic cancers (stage 4):
- People aged 50 years and over tended to have lower survival compared to those aged less than 50 years at 1 year from diagnosis (53% compared to 69%);
- Survival was not reported for people aged less than 50 years at 3 and 5 years from diagnosis due to small numbers.
Observed survival by stage at diagnosis and remoteness area in 2011
For examination of survival by remoteness area, the data apply to observed rather than relative survival due to an absence of life tables. More information can be found in the ‘About the Data’ tab
For melanomas, observed survival by stage at diagnosis was generally similar across remoteness areas. Similar patterns were apparent in both sexes when examining sex-specific observed survival by stage at diagnosis among people living across remoteness areas.
For people living within specified remoteness areas, observed survival varied by sex.
For stage 1 cancers, observed survival was lower for males compared to females living in:
- Major Cities at 3 years (94% compared to 96%) and 5 years from diagnosis (88% compared to 93%);
- Inner and Outer Regional areas at 5 years from diagnosis (88% compared to 91%);
- Remote and Very Remote areas at 1 year (97% compared to 100%), 3 years (93% compared to 100%) and 5 years from diagnosis (91% compared to 100%).
For stage 2 cancers, observed survival was lower for males compared to females living in:
- Major Cities at 1 year (89% compared to 96%), 3 years (68% compared to 77%) and 5 years from diagnosis (56% compared to 66%);
- Inner and Outer Regional areas at 3 years from diagnosis (69% compared to 81%).
For locally advanced and metastatic cancers (stage 3 and 4), observed survival within remoteness areas was similar between males and females at 1, 3 and 5 years from diagnosis where data were available.
Observed survival by stage at diagnosis and socioeconomic status (SES) area in 2011
For examination of survival by SES areas, the data apply to observed rather than relative survival due to an absence of life tables. More information can be found in the ‘About the Data’ tab
For melanomas, observed survival by stage at diagnosis was generally similar across SES areas at 1, 3 and 5-years from diagnosis for people diagnosed with locally advanced cancers (stage 3).
For stage 1 cancers, there was there was a difference in observed survival between people living in the highest SES areas (SES5, 91%) compared to the lowest SES areas (SES1, 87%) at 5 years from diagnosis.
For stage 2 cancers, there was there was a difference in observed survival between people living in the highest SES areas (SES5, 65%) compared to the lowest SES areas (SES1, 53%) at 5 years from diagnosis.
For metastatic cancers (stage 4), there tended to be a difference in observed survival between people living in higher SES areas (SES4-5; between 60% and 63%) compared to the lowest SES areas (SES1, 44%) at 1 year from diagnosis.
Similar patterns were apparent in both sexes, when examining 1, 3 and 5-year observed survival by stage at diagnosis among people living in different SES areas.
Observed survival by stage at diagnosis and Indigenous status in 2011
Analyses of survival by stage were not undertaken by Indigenous status due to small numbers.